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Dementia Projected to Become the Third Leading Cause of Death Globally by 2040

Dementia is on track to become the third leading cause of death worldwide by 2040, according to a newly published commentary in Nature Reviews Neurology by Alzheimer’s Disease International (ADI). The report, developed in collaboration with academics from the London School of Economics, highlights the need for policymakers to treat dementia as a non-communicable disease (NCD) and integrate it into global health frameworks.

Non-communicable diseases, such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes, are defined as long-term medical conditions not spread from person to person. Despite dementia meeting these criteria, it is frequently excluded from policies addressing NCDs. This omission impacts funding, governmental responses, and public health initiatives. ADI’s commentary argues that dementia’s growing prevalence and severity demand urgent recognition and inclusion in global NCD strategies.

The commentary reveals alarming statistics: dementia is projected to rank among the top 10 causes of death in 166 out of 195 countries and territories by 2040. In 121 of these, it will be among the top five causes, and in 53 countries, it will rise to the top two. Furthermore, dementia is expected to be the leading cause of death in 19 countries by 2040. When considering years of life lost (YLL)—a measure of premature mortality—it is anticipated to rank as the fifth leading cause globally.

Paola Barbarino, CEO of ADI and a lead author of the paper, called for urgent action:
“Although dementia is forecast to become the third leading cause of death by 2040, governments continue to misrepresent the condition. Unlike other NCDs such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes, dementia does not receive adequate funding or inclusion in health policy. This is perplexing, given that the number of people living with dementia is projected to nearly triple by 2050, reaching 139 million.”

The exclusion of dementia from NCD frameworks is particularly concerning as it limits the progress needed to mitigate the growing impact of the disease. Recent international reports, such as the World Health Organization’s guide on “Strengthening NCD Integration in Humanitarian Emergencies,” have overlooked dementia, focusing predominantly on conditions associated with premature mortality (under 70 years).

Lewis Arthurton, ADI’s Head of Communications and Policy, highlighted the importance of recognising dementia as a major public health issue:
“The exclusion of dementia from NCD policies represents a significant gap. Projections show it will become one of the leading causes of death globally by 2040. Policymakers must allocate appropriate resources to ensure better support for those living with dementia and their carers.”

As the world prepares for the 4th High-Level Meeting on NCDs at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025, ADI is calling for dementia to be prioritised in these discussions. The meeting will shape the global strategy for addressing non-communicable diseases, and ADI argues that the inclusion of dementia is essential to ensure equitable access to care and resources.

 

 
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