NHS Waiting Lists Show First Decline in Months as Winter Pressures Mount
England’s health service has recorded its first reduction in waiting lists after three consecutive months of increases, according to newly released data that will offer cautious optimism to care providers and patients across the sector.
The waiting list total reached 7.39 million patients at the close of September, representing a decrease from the previous month’s figure of 7.41 million. Whilst the reduction appears modest, health officials have welcomed the reversal of the upward trend.
Performance data indicates that approximately 62% of those awaiting treatment had been on waiting lists for fewer than 18 weeks—marking the strongest performance in this measure for over two years. However, this figure remains considerably below the government’s established target of 92%, which officials have committed to achieving before the current parliamentary term concludes.
In related developments, health authorities have reported a significant surge in flu vaccination uptake following an urgent public health appeal issued last week. More than one million individuals came forward for immunisation in a seven-day period, bringing the total number vaccinated to 14.4 million—marginally ahead of last year’s figures for the same period.
The vaccination drive comes as flu prevalence rates have reached levels three times higher than those recorded at the equivalent point last winter, raising concerns among healthcare professionals about seasonal pressures on services.
Eligible groups for NHS flu vaccinations include those aged 65 and above, individuals with qualifying health conditions, expectant mothers, and children under 16 years of age.
Senior health officials have acknowledged that whilst the waiting list reduction represents positive progress, the healthcare system faces considerable challenges in the months ahead.
Nuffield Trust Deputy Director of Research, Sarah Scobie said:
“Public satisfaction with the health service has plummeted in recent years, so it’s really important that the NHS is transparent about how services are coping. The new information on urgent care published for the first time this month, including on very long waits for mental health care in A&E, is a commendable step towards greater transparency. In October, around 1 in 10 people in a mental health crisis waited over 24 hours in busy A&E departments.
“The government’s 10 year health plan sets out steps to improve this, with new funding to expand mental health emergency departments, but in the meantime, patients will continue to suffer through unacceptably long waits.
“To begin publishing more A&E data now is particularly timely and somewhat brave, as with flu rates above average for this time of year, we can expect a very difficult winter ahead for urgent care services.
“Still only 62% of patients waiting for planned care were seen within 18 weeks, so the NHS is clearly struggling to make meaningful progress towards its headline target. The NHS has relied in part on “data cleaning” to make bigger reductions to the list size during this year. It will be incredibly difficult to pick up the pace on this while finances are so tight, with planned redundancies and ambitious reforms only adding more pressure.”
Tim Gardner, Assistant Director of Policy at the Health Foundation, said:
‘These figures present a challenging outlook for the NHS, particularly as it heads into what NHS leaders have warned is likely to be one of the toughest winters the health service has faced.
‘Urgent and emergency care continues to face considerable pressure, with over 54,000 patients waiting over 12 hours in emergency departments for a bed in October, nearly 10% more than the same month last year. While figures for September show a slight decrease in the elective waiting list to 7.39 million, and a welcome reduction in waiting times, restoring the 18 week standard by the end of this parliament remains a tall order.
‘Making sure the health service has what it needs to deliver on the government’s flagship pledge of cutting NHS waiting lists is clearly on the Chancellor’s mind, as she warns of difficult decisions to come at this month’s Budget. But turning political promises into better patient care will take a system-wide approach to recovery that ensures sufficient capital investment, improvements in productivity and makes good on the government’s promise to prioritise prevention. An urgent resolution to the dispute between the government and resident doctors is also vital.’
Healthcare workers are scheduled to begin a five-day period of industrial action starting Friday morning, marking the thirteenth such occurrence in an extended labour dispute. Recent negotiations between healthcare unions and government representatives concluded without resolution last week.
