Care Home Shortfalls Leave Older Communities Exposed, New Bank Research Warns

A major new study has identified the parts of England where the supply of care home beds is failing to keep pace with the age profile of local residents, with the gap set to widen further as those populations continue to grow older.

The research, commissioned by Unity Trust Bank, compared care bed numbers against the proportion of residents aged 65 and over across all 543 Westminster parliamentary constituencies in England, exposing stark regional disparities in provision.

The project began with a YouGov poll commissioned by the bank, in which the public was asked which essential local services should be prioritised. Support for people in later life emerged as the top concern, cited by 43% of respondents. This prompted Unity Trust Bank to commission detailed follow-up research, starting with an in-depth look at the care sector.

Emma Stacey, Head of Marketing at Unity Trust Bank, said the findings reflected the bank’s wider mission. “As a social impact bank, Unity supports organisations that deliver essential services in sectors such as healthcare, housing and education. People are at the heart of everything we do, so we wanted to find out what matters most to them. After listening to what people said in our poll, we conducted a deep analysis of the key issues raised, starting with care homes. We wanted to look at the role private finance can play in the national renewal of such a vital service.”

The resulting white paper found that adequate care home provision is, in effect, determined by postcode, with some of the country’s most popular retirement destinations facing the most acute shortages of beds.

The analysis identified 36 constituencies that fall into the bottom quarter nationally for care bed provision while simultaneously sitting in the top quarter for the proportion of residents aged 65 and over, meaning these areas combine the greatest need with the weakest supply.

South Devon was found to have the largest shortfall in the country, with just 24.59 care beds per 1,000 residents aged 65 and over. To bring provision up to the national average, the constituency would need approximately 532 additional beds, equivalent to more than a dozen new care homes.

Other areas with significant shortfalls relative to their older populations include North Dorset, which would need 528 additional beds, Richmond and Northallerton, requiring 478, and Derbyshire Dales, with a shortfall of 403 beds.

The research found that many of the worst-affected constituencies share a predominantly rural character, including Central Devon, Glastonbury and Somerton, Penrith and Solway, Wetherby and Easingwold, Thirsk and Malton, Westmorland and Lonsdale, North Devon and South Shropshire.
A common pattern emerged across these areas: long-term inward migration by retirees and older households, alongside an outflow of younger residents seeking work or housing elsewhere.

As a result, the report projects that these communities will age considerably faster than England as a whole over the next two decades, placing further pressure on already stretched services.

Colin Fyfe, CEO of Unity Trust Bank, said the findings were intended to spark wider debate about how care provision is funded and sustained. “We hope our campaign starts a conversation that is long overdue, one that brings together policymakers, providers, investors and communities around a shared understanding of what it will take to sustain the services people depend on. That is the spirit in which this research is offered, and we are glad you are part of it.”