UKHSA Publishes First Cold Mortality Report

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has published its first Cold Mortality Monitoring Report, providing new estimates of deaths associated with cold weather in England during winter 2024 to 2025.

Findings from the report revealed that most deaths happened in hospitals, although the increase in risk during cold weather was greater for people in care homes and those who died at home. Older people were most affected, with the risk rising steeply with age, especially in those aged 85 and over.

The report found that mortality peaks around 5 days after cold weather and remains elevated for up to 9 days. Heart-related deaths tend to increase several days after cold exposure, while respiratory and infection-related deaths show longer delays.

These estimates form a key part of wider winter health surveillance. They sit alongside monitoring of flu, COVID-19, RSV, norovirus and other seasonal pressures, helping to ensure that Cold Weather Alerts and preparedness planning reflect the real health risks faced by vulnerable groups.

Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, said:
“Cold weather remains a serious and preventable risk to public health.

“This report provides important new evidence on how cold affects mortality, helping to ensure that Cold Weather Alerts and preparedness measures are grounded in evidence of health impact. The findings suggest that even short periods of cold can lead to significant increases in mortality, often days or weeks after the temperature drops.

“Understanding who is most affected and how these risks are changing helps us better target winter preparedness, support vulnerable groups, and ensure that cold weather alerts reflect real health impacts, not just weather conditions.”

Population groups most at risk from cold weather include:

• people aged 65 years and over
• people with cardiovascular or respiratory conditions
• people with dementia
• people living in poorly insulated homes or experiencing fuel poverty

When comparing recent winters with the previous 5-year period, the findings suggest people may now be more vulnerable to cold, with the risk of death rising more sharply as temperatures drop. This is likely to be the result of a combination of factors including the ageing population and burden of disease.