NHS Faces Unprecedented Early Flu Surge as Hospital Pressures Mount
The NHS is grappling with an unusually severe and early flu season, with latest data revealing hospital admissions for influenza at unprecedented levels for this time of year. The surge comes as delayed discharges continue to rise, presenting significant challenges for care home providers and community health services.
According to NHS England’s urgent and emergency care daily situation reports, an average of 1,717 patients occupied hospital beds due to flu every day last week—the highest figure ever recorded for early December. This represents a more than sevenfold increase compared to the same week in 2023/24, when just 243 patients were hospitalised with influenza, and a 56% rise from last year’s figure of 1,098.
Despite the dramatic spike in flu cases, overall virus-related hospital pressures have actually decreased compared to last year. Last week saw 2,943 adult and paediatric beds either closed or occupied due to Covid-19, flu, norovirus and paediatric RSV combined, down from 3,546 during the same period in 2024. This improvement is primarily attributed to lower levels of norovirus and Covid-19 infections.
However, delayed discharges remain a persistent concern with direct implications for the care sector. The data shows 13,232 hospital beds were occupied daily by patients who no longer met the criteria to remain in hospital—an increase from 11,969 the previous year. These delays are frequently caused by insufficient availability of follow-up social or community care, highlighting the critical role care homes and community services play in maintaining hospital flow.
There was more positive news regarding ambulance handover times, with 29.7% of delays exceeding 30 minutes last week, compared to 36.1% in 2024. Similarly, the proportion of handovers taking longer than an hour dropped from 16.4% to 10.0%—a significant improvement despite increased overall demand.
Rory Deighton, acute and community care director at the NHS Confederation, warned that the early and intense flu season is compounding pressures on services that have already experienced one of their busiest summers on record.
“NHS service leaders are doing all they can to ensure all patients are kept safe and receive the care they need,” Mr Deighton said. He noted that whilst improved ambulance handover times were welcome, the combination of higher delayed discharges and rising demand creates bottlenecks that can lead to longer A&E waits.
Mr Deighton emphasised that discharge delays, often stemming from gaps in social or community care provision, coupled with surging demand, place enormous strain on the entire healthcare system. He added that health service leaders are working to provide patients with better access to GPs, urgent treatment centres, and community support for falls and frailty.
