Care Homes Not Losing Staff to Supermarkets, Major Study Finds
A comprehensive study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies has challenged the long-held belief that care homes are losing staff to supermarkets and Amazon warehouses, finding no meaningful impact on care home staffing when new retail outlets open nearby.
The research, which examined 178 large supermarket openings and 12 Amazon warehouse openings across England between 2016 and 2022, contradicts the common assertion made by politicians and healthcare leaders that care workers would earn more stacking shelves than providing essential care services.
Key Findings
The study analysed data covering approximately half of all care providers in England, focusing on care homes which account for around 40 per cent of the adult social care workforce. Researchers found that when large supermarkets opened near care homes, there was virtually no change in staffing levels, with an estimated impact of just 0.1 additional staff per care home in the first year following opening.
For context, the average care home in the sample employed 33 staff. The research was able to rule out changes larger than 1.5 per cent of existing staff numbers, effectively disproving concerns about mass exodus to retail positions.
Similarly, Amazon warehouse openings showed no negative impact on care home staffing levels. Despite these facilities employing an average of 750 workers each, far more than typical supermarkets, nearby care homes maintained their workforce numbers.
No Evidence of Increased Turnover
The research also examined whether retail openings might be causing increased staff turnover, with care homes forced to constantly recruit replacements for departing workers. However, no such effect was detected. Staff leaving rates and joining rates remained stable, as did vacancy rates.
Political Implications
The findings arrive at a critical moment for the sector. The government is developing Fair Pay Agreements aimed at improving pay and conditions to address recruitment and retention challenges. This follows the recent closure of the social care visa route to new applicants, placing greater emphasis on domestic recruitment.
The study’s lead researchers suggest their findings indicate that supermarket wages should not be used as a central benchmark in forthcoming collective pay negotiations between employers and employees.
Why the Disconnect?
The research offers several explanations for why the popular narrative may be overstated. Care work and retail positions may require sufficiently different skills or appeal to different workers. The out-of-town locations of many large supermarkets may also reduce their appeal to care home staff.
Additionally, whilst new supermarkets represent a substantial addition to the local care workforce, they may be relatively small compared to the total low-paid labour market in an area.
Notably, researchers found no evidence that care homes raised wages or changed training provision in response to new supermarket openings, suggesting they did not view them as competitive threats.
Looking Elsewhere for Solutions
The study’s authors emphasise that whilst new retail positions do not appear to be a key driver of workforce challenges, this does not diminish the very real recruitment and retention crisis facing the sector.
They suggest future research should explore other contributing factors, including burnout, low professional status, limited progression opportunities, workplace culture, and broader frustrations around pay levels.
The research also notes that other sectors, particularly the NHS, may represent more relevant alternative employment options for care workers than retail positions.
A Call for Evidence-Based Policy
As the sector prepares for potentially transformative changes through Fair Pay Agreements, this research provides important evidence to inform discussions. Understanding which factors genuinely drive recruitment and retention challenges will be essential to developing effective solutions.
The findings suggest that whilst competitive wages remain important, the narrative that care workers are simply choosing supermarket jobs over care work oversimplifies a more complex picture. Addressing the sector’s workforce challenges will likely require a multifaceted approach that goes beyond wage comparisons with retail.
For care home operators, the research offers some reassurance that local retail developments need not be viewed as existential threats to staffing. However, it also underscores the need to understand and address the genuine factors that make recruitment and retention so challenging in this vital sector.
